Comments on + 40kology +: Slightly Unnerfing

I would have thought the rules would have weakend ...

2008-05-06T10:07:00.000-06:00

I would have thought the rules would have weakend Skimmers- I have a Saim Hunn army so that was a big concern of mine.

By the way I have a new blog on Eldar at eldarpath.blogspot.com
Check it out when you can!

Wait, I did the math wrong. But still, for a S10 ...

2008-04-29T15:33:00.000-06:00

Wait, I did the math wrong. But still, for a S10 in 5th against Wave Serpent: 11.57 hits vs 6.23 hits for a Falcon. No AP1 factored in.

So charge those Wave Serpents at the Broadsides, and leave the Falcons for the Crisis Suits.

Ooops, I mean S8 vs AV12.

2008-04-29T15:24:00.001-06:00

Ooops, I mean S8 vs AV12.

What about a Wave Serpent for S9 or higher.I get t...

2008-04-29T15:24:00.000-06:00

What about a Wave Serpent for S9 or higher.

I get this:
4th Ed. S9 or higher = 6 shots
5th Ed. S9 or higher = 16.2 shots

17 shots? Can that be right? Because of the -2 for Glance on the table and because the Wave Serpent always gives you a S8 vs AV14, it means half the time you are only going to not damage it, 1/6 you get a glance and 1/3 a pen.

Compared to the Falcon for S10 in 5th, it looks like Wave Serpents are a LOT more durable. And almost 3 x more durable than they are now.

Yay, finally a new thing for people to complain about.

-Jim

@mike oh I know you are not worried... I just ment...

2008-04-28T13:38:00.000-06:00

@mike
oh I know you are not worried... I just ment that other people should not get too bent out of shape over something that hasn't happened yet. (ie you killing everything with your new SH army)

~kings

The real nerf for Vypers is that, if the rumors ar...

2008-04-28T08:17:00.000-06:00

The real nerf for Vypers is that, if the rumors are to be believed, Vypers can no longer contest objectives. I'm not sure if they will be worth the points of Holofields and Spirit Stones to act as gun platforms.

I'll be interested in your playtests and experiences Bullymike.

Good call Jim. I was leaving penetrating damage in...

2008-04-27T21:51:00.000-06:00

Good call Jim. I was leaving penetrating damage in my calculations for 4th edition, when obviously the best part of that was the glancing hits only rule for SMF. I'll post the corrections in a sec. You are right, the stronger guns things get only negligibly more difficult, while the lower strength guns get a bit more of a challenge. good to know.

@kings - do I sound worried? my SH army has 3 prisms and 4 vypers, all with SS & HF. whatevs, i knew i must have made an error somewhere.

For later math-hammer: would an AP1 multi-melta no...

2008-04-27T21:29:00.000-06:00

For later math-hammer: would an AP1 multi-melta now be better than a Lascannon because of the +1 on damage chart? Less likely to get to the damage table, but better at negating the holo-field advantage on the damage table.

-Jim (realgenius)

You wrote:lascannon vs. 5th edition HF/SS prism:2/...

2008-04-27T21:21:00.000-06:00

You wrote:

lascannon vs. 5th edition HF/SS prism:

2/3 to hit X ((1/6 to glance X 2/3 to get through cover save X 1/9 to do more than shake)+(1/2 to pen X 2/3 to get through cover save X 4/9 to do more than shake)) = 0.106996. One divided by that number = 9.346154 or 10 shots to do more than shake.

For 4th edition lascannon vs. HF/SS prism:

2/3 * 2/3 * 1/4 = 0.111111 ~ 9 shots, which is IMHO pretty close to 9.34

In fact, for any S9+ it is the same. For S8:

2/3 * 1/2 * 1/4 ~ 12 shots

For 5th S10 = .1399177 ~ 7.14 shots

So, for Lascannon, it is almost the same, but for a S10 they are more vulnerable. And for AP1 Railgun, even more so than before, with AP1 modifier.

I think what how things will be changed is that for S8 or S9 they will be marginally harder to kill, but for S10 or S9 AP1, they get somewhat easier.

-Jim (realgenius)

I wouldn't worry about it too much.~kings

2008-04-27T21:00:00.000-06:00

I wouldn't worry about it too much.

~kings

i have some doubts about all this, mainly based on...

2008-04-26T10:46:00.000-06:00

i have some doubts about all this, mainly based on me rolling the dice for a while and seeing more damaged results than I would expect from these numbers. i linked up to minions, hopefully someone will see something wrong in my math.

okay, I'm an idiot, I've no idea why I was thinkin...

2008-04-26T09:46:00.000-06:00

okay, I'm an idiot, I've no idea why I was thinking 4+ to hit.

here's some examples of how I ran the math:bolter ...

2008-04-26T08:45:00.000-06:00

here's some examples of how I ran the math:

bolter vs. 4th edition HF/SS vyper:

2/3 to hit X 1/6 to glance X 16/36 to get a result other than shaken = 0.049383. Divide 1 by that number and you get 20.25, in other words 21 shots to get anything other than shaken.

lascannon vs. 4th edition HF/SS prism:

2/3 to hit X ((1/6 to glance X 1/4 to do more than shake)+(1/2 to pen X 25/36 to do more than shake)) = 0.259259. Divide 1 by that number and you get 3.857143, in other words 4 shots to do more than shake.

bolter vs. 5th edition HF/SS vyper:

2/3 to hit X 1/6 to glance X 2/3 to get through cover save X 1/4 to do more than shake = 0.018519. One divided by that number = 3.626866 or 4 shots to do more than shake.

lascannon vs. 5th edition HF/SS prism:

2/3 to hit X ((1/6 to glance X 2/3 to get through cover save X 1/9 to do more than shake)+(1/2 to pen X 2/3 to get through cover save X 4/9 to do more than shake)) = 0.106996. One divided by that number = 9.346154 or 10 shots to do more than shake.

Las Cannon vs. FalconToday:.500 x .667 x .028 (1/3...

2008-04-26T07:01:00.000-06:00

Las Cannon vs. Falcon

Today:

.500 x .667 x .028 (1/36) = .009 or .9% chance

5th:

.500 x .500 x .667 x .111 (4/36) = .018 or 1.8% chance

Looks to be about double the probability, but still not super easy.

I ran the numbers for a bolter, here's what I got....

2008-04-26T06:44:00.000-06:00

I ran the numbers for a bolter, here's what I got.

Chance of any given bolter shot taking down a Vyper.

50.0% chance to hit
16.7% to roll a glancing 6
66.7% chance it will not be saved
11.1% chance (4/36) to roll 5 and/or 6 on 2d6

.500 x .167 x .667 x .111 = .006

.6% chance or 1:166 for any given bolter shot to bring down a Vyper.

Ran through the Plasma too, but my brain is not as confident about the mixed glance/pen calculations.

.500 x .167 x .667 x .111 = .006 on a glance
.500 x .500 x .667 x .444 = .074 on a penetration

Total of .080 or 8.0% or 1:12.5