Slightly Unnerfing

Maybe I'm leaving some detail out of my calculations, but it appears to me that if the rumored vehicle damage rules come true, it will actually be harder to damage eldar skimmers with holo-fields and spirit stones than in 4th edition.

In 4th edition, for a BS4 unit to do anything more than shake a vyper/falcon with holos and stones it takes, on average:

• 21/n bolter shots
(95%/n to shake or less)

• 10/n heavy bolter shots
(89%/n to shake or less)

• 4/10 plasma or autocannon shots
(74%/90% to shake or less)

• 4/6 krak missiles
(67%/82% to shake or less)

• 3/4 lascannon shots
(60%/74% to shake or less)

• 21/n bolter shots
(95%/n to shake or less)

• 11/n heavy bolter shots
(90%/n to shake or less)

• 6/25 plasma or autocannon shots
(80%/94% to shake or less)

• 5/14 krak missiles/6-12" melta/exorcist launcher shots
(75%/92% to shake or less)

• 4/10 lascannon/0-6" melta shots
(70%/89% to shake or less)

Notice those are shots, not hits. If the rumored 5th edition vehicle damage table is accurate, to do anything more than shake the same vehicles it will take the same unit, on average:

• 55/n bolter shots
(98%/n to shake or less)

• 15/n heavy bolter shots
(93%/n to shake or less)

• 6/25 plasma or autocannon shots
(83%/96% to shake or less)

• 5/14 krak missiles
(78%/93% to shake or less)

• 4/10 lascannon shots
(72%/89% to shake or less)

• 3/6 7-12" melta/exorcist launcher shots
(60%/81% to shake or less)

• 3/4 0-6" melta shots
(56%/71% to shake or less)

This assumes they moved 12", meaning they got the rumored "5+ cover save" for moving fast and were able to shoot at least one major weapon. Vypers will be only slightly more resistant to major damage from the higher strength weapons, but otherwise it looks like both vehicles are like doubly hard to bring down! Someone please prove my math wrong!

Besides the obvious boost to falcons as transport options, I predict fire prisms will start to pop up in more eldar armies, with sets of three being especially powerful. Other than close range weapons like fusion guns, singing spears, or haywires/meltabombs, it'll be the best gun to take down monoliths and land raiders that the eldar have at their disposal. At best they'll be glancing and doing no more than immobilizing them with S8. I expect both of those AV14 monsters to become more popular as well. I would bet that the Ravenwing flying land raider will be tougher, too.

edit: Thanks to Jim for pointing out my error in my 4th edition calculations. I was including the possibility of using the penetrating damage table, when only glancing is possible in 4th against SMF! I knew the rule but copy/pasting must have got the better of me. I put the corrected versions up. So basically lower strength guns will have a bit harder time, with Vypers obviously benefitting the most from this, but high strength guns will have the same odds or better. Good to know. I tried to reorganize the data a bit below. I also calculated meltagun and exorcist launcher odds. Those get much better at bringing down SS/HF skimmers in 5th.

To do more than shake a SS/HF vyper in 4th edition vs. 5th edition, it takes a BS4 unit:

• 21 vs. 55 bolter shots


• 11 vs. 15 heavy bolter shots


• 6 vs. 6 plasma gun/autocannon shots


• 5 vs. 5 krak missile launcher shots


• 5 vs. 3 7-12" meltagun/exorcist launcher shots


• 3 vs. 4 0-6" meltagun shots


• 4 vs. 4 lascannon shots

To do more than shake a SS/HF prism or falcon in 4th edition vs. 5th edition, it takes a BS4 unit:

• 19 vs. 25 plasma gun/autocannon shots


• 13 vs. 14 krak missile launcher shots


• 13 vs. 6 7-12" meltagun/exorcist launcher shots


• 7 vs. 4 0-6" meltagun shots


• 10 vs. 10 lascannon shots

Imagifer, Uragifer

Imagifers cost 20 points per squad for Battle Sister squads. Squads of seraphim count as having one if led by a veteran sister superior. I was curious as to their exact benefit, so I did a little math (for the odds on 2d6 see this post) Here are the odds for Acts of Faith that require you to roll squad size or below, such as divine guidance:

2 ... 7% chance of success (4% more than 2d6)
3 ... 20% (+12%)
4 ... 36% (+19%)
5 ... 52% (+24%)
6 ... 68% (+26%)
7 ... 81% (+23%)
8 ... 89% (+17%)
9 ... 95% (+12%)
10 ... 98% (+6%)
11 & 12 ... 100% (+3%)

For those Acts that require you to roll squad size or greater, it's the same numbers the other way around (2 & 3 is 100%, 12 is 7%). Imagifers are most helpful at a squad size of 6 or 7.

2d6 Odds

As far as I can figure 'em, here's the odds for 2d6 leadership rolls:

Ld .. % success
2 ... 2.8
3 ... 8.3
4 ... 16.7
5 ... 27.8
6 ... 41.7
7 ... 58.3
8 ... 72.2
9 ... 83.3
10 ... 91.7
11 ... 97.2

10 is the highest base leadership value that I know of, and I don't think you can ever go above 10 with modifiers. Obviously there are plenty of negative modifiers. One interesting thing to note is that losing a point of leadership at either extreme (high or low Ld) does not produce as devastating an effect as losing a point when your Ld is around 7 or 8. Like Blaine says, you lose it there and you're in a world of hurt. From 8 to 6 is pretty much worst case scenario.

Obviously some armies never have to worry about this at all. Chaos has the most fearless units, excepting maybe Tyranids when placed within synapse distance. Necrons is probably the next best, with all units either fearless or at Ld 10. After that come Marines, whose 'know no fear' gives them most of the benefits of fearlessness without making them take saves for being outnumbered when they lose an assault. Eldar and Orks are middle ground, with Guard and Tau being the most vulnerable.

My original purpose for calculating these odds was to evaluate the benefit of the various ways to beef Ld for my Guard army. In the end I settled with the Iron Discipline doctrine for all my officers, and a Company Banner in the main HQ (see previous post). It takes care of the -1 for being below 50%, allows for a Ld reroll which virtually guarantees success, and to top it off my squads can regroup when below 50%. All this for 5 points per officer (15 total for my army) plus 11 for the standard bearer. Compare that to upgrading officers just for one flimsy extra point of Ld (because honestly the extra attack and wound are useless) and it's a no-brainer. Still, if you do go that route, it's cheaper to give a Junior Officer the Honorifica rather than upgrade him to a Heroic Senior. I love my Commissar model but after I made my Command HQ static with a heavy weapon, his benefit is just not worth the points (40+).